PredictionBubbles
Polymarket · Politics

Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?

Yes is trading at 99.1% on Polymarket, up 93.7 points in the last 24 hours. $323K traded over the market’s life, $145K of it in the last day. It was scheduled to resolve on 26 July 2026.

By volume it is number 703 of the 833 open politics markets on the board, and $145K of that traded in the last day.

Its scheduled resolution date passed 11 days ago. Polymarket still lists it as open, so the price above is current, but the question may be waiting on settlement.

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Current odds

Yes99.1%
No0.9%

Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.

Price history

18 Jul0.0% – 100.0%4 Aug

Hourly samples for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.

Market detail

Lifetime volume
$323K
24h volume
$145K
24h move
+93.7 points
Liquidity
$16K
Open interest
$156K
Opened
17 July 2026
Resolves
26 July 2026
Venue
Polymarket · on-chain, Polygon

Where this price comes from

Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.

To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.

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