PredictionBubbles
Polymarket · Politics

Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes is trading at 1.0% on Polymarket, up 0.1 points in the last 24 hours. $1.3M has changed hands over the market’s life, $4K of it in the last day. It resolves on 10 October 2026, 65 days from now.

By volume it is number 309 of the 398 open politics markets on the board, and $4K of that traded in the last day.

Trade this on Polymarket ↗

Current odds

Yes1.0%
No99.0%

Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.

Price history

5 Jul0.0% – 2.2%5 Aug

Hourly samples for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.

Market detail

Lifetime volume
$1.3M
24h volume
$4K
24h move
+0.1 points
Liquidity
$92K
Open interest
$1.2M
Opened
16 October 2025
Resolves
10 October 2026
Venue
Polymarket · on-chain, Polygon

Where this price comes from

Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.

To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts every open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and coloured by probability.

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