Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
Yes is trading at 2.4% on Polymarket. $492K traded over the market’s life, $167 of it in the last day. It resolves on 31 December 2026, 145 days from now.
By volume it is number 10 of the 24 open climate markets on the board, and $167 of that traded in the last day.
Trade this on Polymarket ↗Current odds
| Yes | 2.4% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 97.7% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Price history
Hourly samples for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.
Market detail
- Lifetime volume
- $492K
- 24h volume
- $167
- 24h move
- —
- Liquidity
- $36K
- Open interest
- —
- Opened
- 12 November 2025
- Resolves
- 31 December 2026
- Venue
- Polymarket · on-chain, Polygon
Where this price comes from
Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.
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- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?0.5% · Polymarket · $789K
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?3.6% · Polymarket · $685K
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