PredictionBubbles
Polymarket · Politics

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?

Yes is trading at 100.0% on Polymarket. $862K traded over the market’s life, $7K of it in the last day. It was scheduled to resolve on 4 August 2026.

By volume it is number 518 of the 833 open politics markets on the board, and $7K of that traded in the last day.

Its scheduled resolution date passed 2 days ago. Polymarket still lists it as open, so the price above is current, but the question may be waiting on settlement.

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Current odds

Yes100.0%
No0.1%

Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.

Price history

31 Jul48.1% – 100.0%7 Aug

Hourly samples for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.

Market detail

Lifetime volume
$862K
24h volume
$7K
24h move
—
Liquidity
$123K
Open interest
—
Opened
31 July 2026
Resolves
4 August 2026
Venue
Polymarket · on-chain, Polygon

Where this price comes from

Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.

To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.

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