PredictionBubbles
Polymarket · Politics

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

Yes is trading at 19.5% on Polymarket, up 3.0 points in the last 24 hours. $432K traded over the market’s life, $17K of it in the last day. It resolves on 31 December 2026, 145 days from now.

By volume it is number 657 of the 830 open politics markets on the board, and $17K of that traded in the last day.

Trade this on Polymarket ↗

Current odds

Yes19.5%
No80.5%

Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.

Price history

5 Jul6.5% – 21.5%7 Aug

Hourly samples for Yes. The live board draws every outcome and lets you switch the window.

Market detail

Lifetime volume
$432K
24h volume
$17K
24h move
+3.0 points
Liquidity
$50K
Open interest
$186K
Opened
5 November 2025
Resolves
31 December 2026
Venue
Polymarket · on-chain, Polygon

Where this price comes from

Polymarket is an on-chain venue settling in USDC on Polygon. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.

To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.

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