Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026? — Before 2027
Before 2027 is trading at 6.4% on Kalshi, up 0.2 points in the last 24 hours. $1.0M traded over the market’s life, $178 of it in the last day. It resolves on 1 January 2027, 146 days from now.
By volume it is number 492 of the 830 open politics markets on the board, and $178 of that traded in the last day.
Trade this on Kalshi ↗Current odds
| Before 2027 | 6.4% | |
|---|---|---|
| No | 93.6% |
Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.
Market detail
- Lifetime volume
- $1.0M
- 24h volume
- $178
- 24h move
- +0.2 points
- Liquidity
- —
- Open interest
- $208K
- Opened
- 8 January 2026
- Resolves
- 1 January 2027
- Venue
- Kalshi · CFTC-regulated, US
Where this price comes from
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.
To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.
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