PredictionBubbles
Kalshi · Politics

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 15, 2026?

Before Aug 15, 2026 is trading at 1.0% on Kalshi, down 1.0 points in the last 24 hours. $882K traded over the market’s life, $57K of it in the last day. It resolves on 18 August 2026, 10 days from now.

By volume it is number 511 of the 833 open politics markets on the board, and $57K of that traded in the last day.

Trade this on Kalshi ↗

Current odds

Before Aug 15, 20261.0%
No99.0%

Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.

Market detail

Lifetime volume
$882K
24h volume
$57K
24h move
-1.0 points
Liquidity
—
Open interest
$527K
Opened
8 July 2026
Resolves
18 August 2026
Venue
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated, US

Where this price comes from

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.

To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.

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