PredictionBubbles
Kalshi · Politics

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2026?

Before Sep 1, 2026 is trading at 9.0% on Kalshi, down 3.0 points in the last 24 hours. $2.9M traded over the market’s life, $91K of it in the last day. It resolves on 1 September 2026, 24 days from now.

By volume it is number 259 of the 830 open politics markets on the board, and $91K of that traded in the last day.

Trade this on Kalshi ↗

Current odds

Before Sep 1, 20269.0%
No91.0%

Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.

Market detail

Lifetime volume
$2.9M
24h volume
$91K
24h move
-3.0 points
Liquidity
—
Open interest
$1.5M
Opened
14 April 2026
Resolves
1 September 2026
Venue
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated, US

Where this price comes from

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.

To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.

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