PredictionBubbles
Kalshi · Politics

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026?

Before Oct 1, 2026 is trading at 20.0% on Kalshi, down 6.0 points in the last 24 hours. $1.7M traded over the market’s life, $13K of it in the last day. It resolves on 1 October 2026, 54 days from now.

By volume it is number 361 of the 833 open politics markets on the board, and $13K of that traded in the last day.

Trade this on Kalshi ↗

Current odds

Before Oct 1, 202620.0%
No80.0%

Prices are the market’s implied probability: a contract at 62% costs 62 cents and pays $1 if it resolves true.

Market detail

Lifetime volume
$1.7M
24h volume
$13K
24h move
-6.0 points
Liquidity
—
Open interest
$744K
Opened
14 April 2026
Resolves
1 October 2026
Venue
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated, US

Where this price comes from

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange settling in dollars. The number above is the last traded price on this contract, pulled from the venue’s public API and refreshed every 15 minutes. This site takes no position and sets no price of its own.

To weigh it against the same question elsewhere, open the live board: it puts the busiest open Polymarket and Kalshi market side by side, sized by volume and colored by probability.

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